星空无限传媒 is partnering with to provide fact-checking reporting in Ohio for the 2024 campaign.
As he repeated about Haitian immigrants, Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, linked the recent immigration uptick in Springfield 鈥� an Ohio city with about 58,000 people as of the 鈥� to rising murders.
"The local services are completely overwhelmed," Vance Sept. 15 on CNN鈥檚 "State of the Union," adding that people in Springfield have struggled to afford housing. "Homelessness has gone up. Murders are up by 81% because of what Kamala Harris has allowed to happen to this small community."
Vance, former President Donald Trump鈥檚 vice presidential running mate, was one of the first conservative politicians to elevate the falsehoods that . Local and state leaders have rebutted such claims and said from genuine housing, schooling and health care constraints the city has faced as its immigrant population increased.
RELATED: 鈥業 am afraid鈥�: The aftermath of Springfield, Ohio, misinformation on Haitians who live there
One thing they haven鈥檛 talked about is rising murder. In fact, the city鈥檚 immigration Haitian migrants are more likely to be the victims of crimes than perpetrators, citing Clark County jail data.
A Trump-Vance campaign spokesperson pointed us to that from 2021 to 2023, murders in Springfield rose from five to nine. That鈥檚 how Vance gets an 80% increase.
Case closed? No.
Looking further back, the number of homicides in Springfield fluctuated without a clear trend from 2013 to 2022. In 2018, for example, when there were fewer migrants and Trump was president, there were 13 homicides.
A criminal justice expert cautioned against relying on annual changes in Springfield to draw conclusions about crime.
"With less than one homicide per month, statistical tests on annual changes are not possible. Homicides are too much of a rare event to determine whether small changes are statistically meaningful," said John Roman, director of the at the nonpartisan research group NORC at the University of Chicago.
What are Springfield鈥檚 homicide numbers?
Springfield has attracted Haitian migrants because of its relatively low cost of living and the job opportunities that city leadership and its chamber of commerce created, according to .
Haitian migrants began moving to Springfield , and the number increased around 2020 and 2021, , and reported. The City of Springfield鈥檚 estimates there are about 12,000 to 15,000 immigrants in Clark County, Ohio, where Springfield is located. Of that total, about 10,000 to 12,000 are Haitian, , health commissioner for the Clark County Combined Health District.
Vance has not demonstrated how Haitians are connected to murders, which have fluctuated over the last decade. Clark County Prosecutor Daniel Driscoll, a Republican, that he鈥檇 seen no murders where Haitians were perpetrators or victims in his 21 years in office.
Vance鈥檚 murder statistic comes from the , a state-run program for Ohio law enforcement agencies to voluntarily submit crime data. Springfield police started reporting its figures in 2021.
RELATED: Trump repeats false narrative about Haitians in Springfield, city leaders dispel rumors
We wanted a longer view, so we looked up homicide data by the Springfield police department to the FBI over a 10-year period, starting in 2013. The latest data available is for 2022. (The FBI defines "homicide" as "the killing of one human being by another," which differs slightly from the first dataset鈥檚 of "murder" for a killing that was "willful.")
The number of homicides reached a decade-high of 13 homicides in 2018. In 2019, it dropped to a low of two. In 2020, there were eight homicides.
In February 2021, then-Springfield Police Chief Lee Graf that homicides in Springfield are often premeditated or crimes of passion with personal motives and rarely involve a random victim.
Homicide and murder data in Springfield, Ohio, shows no clear trend since 2013
The Springfield police department did not reply to PolitiFact鈥檚 query for information about murder data.
Local news outlets in Springfield reported data that鈥檚 different from what the Ohio reporting system shows, and counts vary among outlets. For example, the Springfield News-Sun that there were nine homicides in 2021; there were 12 homicides in 2021.
The Springfield News-Sun reported in 2023, as of Nov. 29. Based on that figure, Springfield had no change from 2021 to 2023.
Our ruling
Vance said, "Murders are up by 81%" in Springfield.
Data reported to the Ohio Incident Based Reporting System showed that from 2021 to 2023, murders in Springfield rose from five to nine 鈥� an 80% increase.
Longer-term data, from 2013 to 2022, reported by the Springfield police to the FBI, shows that the number of homicides has fluctuated in Springfield without a clear trend. Data reported by a local news outlet also doesn鈥檛 show a change in homicides from 2021 to 2023.
Vance offered a cherry-picked statistic as he and Trump criticized the effects of immigration into Springfield. But the city said Haitian migrants are likelier to be the victims of crimes than the perpetrators.
The statement contains an element of truth but ignores critical facts that give a different impression. We rate it Mostly False.
RELATED: Vance says Haitian migrants with protected status are 'illegal aliens' to be deported
Our Sources
, accessed Sept. 16, 2024Email exchange with JD Vance campaign spokesperson, Sept. 16, 2024
Email interview with John Roman, director of the and senior fellow in the Economics, Justice & Society department at NORC at the University of Chicago, Sept. 17, 2024
Ohio Incident-Based Reporting System, , accessed, Sept. 17, 2024
Federal Bureau of Investigation Crime Data Explorer, , accessed Sept. 18, 2024
WHIO, , March 3, 2023
Springfield News-Sun, , Feb. 21, 2021
Springfield News-Sun, , April 2, 2017
The New York Times, , Sept. 3, 2024
Springfield News-Sun, , March 24, 2019
United States Census Bureau, , accessed Sept. 17, 2024
Reuters, , Sept. 11, 2024
ABC News, Sept. 17, 2024
The Associated Press, , Sept. 11, 2024
Springfield News-Sun, , July 13, 2024
The Guardian, , Sept. 14, 2024
The New York Times, , Sept. 14, 2024
Dayton Daily News, , Sept. 12, 2024
NPR, , Aug. 12, 2024
Springfield News-Sun, Aug. 9, 2023
Springfield News-Sun, , Nov. 29, 2023
CNN, , Sept. 19, 2024
, July 16, 2024
Springfield News-Sun, , Nov. 21, 2023
Cornell Law School, , accessed Sept. 19, 2024
City of Springfield, Ohio, , accessed Sept. 19, 2024
CNN, , Sept. 20, 2024