CARACAS, Venezuela 鈥� Venezuelans are bracing for one of their most consequential and contentious elections this Sunday, which could bring dramatic change to the South American nation.
Should the main opposition candidate, Edmundo Gonz谩lez Urrutia, win and take an oath of office in January, it would end 12 years of authoritarian government under President Nicol谩s Maduro 鈥� and a quarter-century of rule by the Socialist Party founded by the late leader Hugo Ch谩vez.
Eight other are also on the ballot but none polls above 2%. Those same Gonz谩lez with a huge lead over Maduro, who has led Venezuela into its worst economic crisis in history and nearly crushed its democracy, prompting almost 8 million Venezuelans to .
However, Maduro controls all branches of power, including the armed forces and the National Electoral Council that will count the votes. His government has flooded the mainstream media, which it controls, with propaganda and has engaged in a the opposition.
Its most brazen move was to ban popular opposition leader Mar铆a Corina Machado from taking part in the election. It also placed a series of on the 5.5 million voting-age Venezuelans living abroad 鈥� most of whom oppose Maduro 鈥� that will prevent most of them from casting ballots on Sunday.
Even if Gonz谩lez 鈥� who has replaced Machado on the ballot 鈥� wins, it remains unclear whether Maduro would recognize his victory and peacefully leave power.
Here are some of the key things to understand about the Venezuelan election.
When is Venezuela's presidential election?
The election is on Sunday, with polls opening at 6 a.m. and closing at 6 p.m. The date, July 28, happens to be of late President Ch谩vez, who was Maduro's mentor.
Electoral authorities told NPR they couldn't say exactly when results would be released. In past elections, final vote tallies were given late in the night or even stretching into following days.
Who is running in the election?
Incumbent President Nicol谩s Maduro is running for a third six-year term. Maduro, 61, was first elected president in 2013 following the death of Ch谩vez, who had run Venezuela since 1999 on pledges to carry out a leftist revolution. Under Maduro, Venezuela suffered an economic collapse marked by food shortages, hyperinflation and the crumbling of its vital oil industry. That led to massive street protests prompting a government crackdown that included the jailing of opposition leaders and press censorship.
Maduro won in balloting widely considered a sham. Should he win on Sunday, Maduro is promising to grow the economy now that U.S. sanctions against the country鈥檚 oil industry have . He鈥檚 also warning Venezuelans of chaos should the opposition win.
鈥淚f you don't want a bloodbath in Venezuela, a civil war brought about by the fascists, then let's strive for the biggest success, the biggest victory in the electoral history of our people," voters this month.
The leading opposition candidate is Edmundo Gonz谩lez Urrutia, a 74-year-old grandfather and a retired career diplomat. Opposition leaders after Machado, who easily won the opposition鈥檚 primary last year, was disqualified over unproven allegations of corruption.
The two have been campaigning together and drawing massive crowds, with the fiery Machado exhorting her supporters to vote for her replacement. Gonz谩lez served as Venezuela's ambassador to Algeria and Argentina but quit in 2002 to work for Venezuela's political opposition. He has never held elective office and before his sudden emergence as Machado鈥檚 stand-in, he was unknown to most Venezuelans. Yet many are rallying to his side.
鈥淲e were a rich country, and it just isn鈥檛 fair that this one man [Maduro] has brought us this disaster,鈥� Mar铆a Lagos, an ER nurse, told NPR after attending an opposition rally on July 21. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 why I鈥檓 voting for Gonz谩lez.鈥�
Gonz谩lez has been vague about what he would do as president. But he has promised to lead 鈥渁 government for everyone鈥� in which Machado would be a key player. 鈥淪he鈥檚 an essential leader in the process. 鈥� She will have whatever role she desires in the government,鈥� The Guardian newspaper.
What happens if opposition candidate Gonz谩lez wins?
The main question looming over Sunday鈥檚 voting is whether, in the case of an opposition victory, Maduro will respect the results and allow for a peaceful transition of power. A key sticking point is that, should Maduro leave office he could face .
The International Criminal Court is on allegations of crimes against humanity, including torture, sexual violence and arbitrary detentions. In addition, Maduro and several members of his inner circle face for drug trafficking, terrorism and other crimes. Geoff Ramsey, a Venezuela expert at the Atlantic Council think tank, says: 鈥淭he reality is that Maduro is not going to give up power if he perceives that there's any real risk that he could end up in a jail cell in Miami.鈥�
But there may be some wiggle room. Four years ago, the U.S. dropped drug-trafficking to foster better relations with Mexico. Likewise, the U.S. could bend a little with Maduro to promote a smooth transition of power.
鈥淭here are many, many little things you could do or signal or trade behind the scenes,鈥� says John Feeley, a former U.S. diplomat in Latin America. 鈥淵ou can make it clear: 鈥榊ep, you're a narcotics trafficker; you ever set foot in the United States, we will arrest you.鈥� But you could also send emissaries to say: 鈥楾hese are several countries where you might live.鈥� 鈥�
Maduro鈥檚 son, a politician also named Nicol谩s, El Pa铆s: 鈥淚f Edmundo wins, we will turn over power and become the opposition. That鈥檚 it.鈥�
But even if that happens, an incoming Gonz谩lez administration could find itself hamstrung because Maduro鈥檚 Socialist Party would continue to control all other branches of power.
What happens if Maduro stays in office?
Polls are predicting an overwhelming loss for Maduro. But if he announces victory and clings to power amid clear evidence that the opposition won, his government could face street protests from disgruntled voters.
鈥淲e all have to go out on to the streets and defend鈥� an opposition victory, preschool teacher Gabriela Hurtado says. 鈥淚f we stay at home we鈥檒l have to go through another 20-plus years like this 鈥� and that is what we don鈥檛 want.鈥�
The U.S. and the European Union are unlikely to recognize a fraud-marred election, which could lead to more sanctions against Venezuelan government figures. Machado, the opposition leader, is warning that six more years of Maduro could lead to another huge .
The opposition is counting on help from the U.S., Europe and the left-leaning presidents of neighboring Colombia and Brazil to convince Maduro to stand down should Gonz谩lez win. To protect against fraud in an election in which Maduro has banned most independent , the opposition will try to place at every voting table.
鈥淲e have to count the votes. That is our challenge. Everyone knows that Edmundo Gonz谩lez is winning by at least 30 points,鈥� Machado told NPR while sitting in the back of an SUV on her way to a campaign rally in western Venezuela on Tuesday. 鈥淲e are hours away from a day we have been waiting for 25 years.鈥�
John Otis reported from Bogot谩, Colombia; Carrie Kahn reported from Caracas and Barquisimeto, Venezuela.
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