Bundled in wool coat and scarf, Danny O鈥機onnor stands outside the entrance to a Pataskala High School football field. It鈥檚 senior night, and the announcer introduces each soon-to-be graduate over the PA system.
鈥淗i folks, how are you,鈥� he says, walking up to a couple loaded down with blankets and bleacher seats. 鈥淚鈥檓 Danny O鈥機onnor, running for U.S. Congress.鈥�
O鈥機onnor hands out a handful of postcards with Ohio State鈥檚 football schedule on one side and a campaign ad on the other. The Democrat is again raising stiff opposition in a district held by Republicans since the early 1980s.
In an August special election for the vacant 12th District seat, less than 2,000 votes separated him from Republican Troy Balderson. That's a far closer margin than the runaway victories enjoyed by both Trump and former Rep. Pat Tiberi in 2016.
鈥淚 certainly hope you beat him this time,鈥� the man says, freeing a hand to shake O鈥機onnor鈥檚.
鈥淭hank you, thank you,鈥� O鈥機onnor says, 鈥淲ould you like a Buckeye schedule to remind you?"
鈥淛ust give him one,鈥� the woman says with a grin. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 have any pockets left.鈥�
O鈥機onnor has made pitches like this one a central part of his campaign. He believes football is a way to reach suburban Republicans troubled by President Trump鈥檚 rhetoric.
Recalling an Ohio State game in 2016, he says, 鈥淲e鈥檙e racking up touchdown after touchdown, and every touchdown I鈥檓 giving a high five to a guy in a Make America Great Again hat. Because for three and a half hours, we weren鈥檛 divided.鈥�
So far, O鈥機onnor鈥檚 outraised Balderson, amassing a nearly $1 million advantage in their last campaign reporting period. But a Trump-aligned super PAC has erased that margin, putting the same amount into ads attacking O鈥機onnor.
The website still gives the Republican a slight edge, but Ohio State political scientist Paul Beck says that last-minute spending could suggest the GOP is worried.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 probably an indicator that it鈥檚 closer than they thought it was going to be, that they鈥檙e worried about it, and feel like they need to redouble their efforts to try to take what is a natural Republican district and make sure it stays Republican,鈥� Beck says.
He notes places like Delaware County look different now than they did when district lines were drawn in 2011鈥攎ore suburban, more highly educated鈥攁nd that could provide openings for O鈥機onnor. In particular, he explains college educated women are dissatisfied with the President.
鈥淭hey are voters that are up for grabs in this election,鈥� Beck says. 鈥淎gain, all over the country, but certainly in the 12th district, and O鈥機onnor may be able to make some inroads with them.鈥�
But even if the national conversation is creating headwinds, Balderson remains confident.
鈥淭hese are local elections,鈥� Balderson insists. 鈥淭hey鈥檝e become nationalized, but they鈥檙e still local elections. And it鈥檚 always an honor for me. We鈥檙e knocking on doors still.鈥�
While O'Connor continued campaigning immediately after August's special election, Balderson headed to Washington. He thinks the district鈥檚 underlying demographics favor his bid, and he believes he鈥檒l actually win more convincingly in November.
Balderson says the special election was just poorly timed.
鈥淵ou know, there was a county that was just starting its county fair at that time, people were still traveling on their vacations, schools were starting in the following weeks,鈥� Balderson says. 鈥淪o there was a lot of other activities going outside people鈥檚 mindset than a special election, and that鈥檚 going to change in November.鈥�
Beck says about 40 percent of registered voters turn out for a typical midterm election. The August special election nearly matched that mark, and the general seems likely to surpass it.
But turnout in rural counties like Marion, Morrow, and Muskingum, where Balderson would presumably have the advantage, lagged in August. At the same time, O鈥機onnor supporters point to precincts near Ohio State where turnout was in the single digits.
Both campaigns expect to pick up a lot of votes in those areas come Election Day.
