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Analysis: Can Tim Walz persuade at least some in red, rural Ohio to vote blue?

a man in a suit smiles with an arena crowd behind him as well as a large "harris/walz" sign
Matt Rourke
/
AP
Democratic vice presidential nominee Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz appears with Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris at a campaign rally in Philadelphia, Tuesday, Aug. 6, 2024.

There鈥檚 no one in the state who knows more about what Ohio鈥檚 rural voters look for in politicians than Christopher Gibbs, a working farmer from Shelby County.

鈥淭hey want someone who is real; someone who is genuine,鈥 said Gibbs, who raises corn and soybeans on his family farm about 110 miles due north of Cincinnati.

鈥淜amala Harris has given rural America a gift ; a gift that we can all point to raise up those who鈥檝e felt like their voices weren鈥檛 being heard,鈥 Gibbs said.

That gift, Gibbs says, is Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

鈥淭im Walz is someone the people of rural Ohio can relate to,鈥欌 Gibbs said.

Gibbs knows something about what appeals to voters in ruby red places like Shelby County.

He is a gentleman, but not what you would call a gentleman farmer 鈥 a farm owner who sits comfortably in the big house while others do the work. He is a working farmer, out in the fields each day running a massive tractor or a combine, doing the hard work himself.

In Ohio politics, Gibbs is unique 鈥 a former chairman of the Shelby County Republican Party who left the party of Lincoln, Eisenhower, and Reagan that his family had been part of for generations.

He watched his party fall under the spell of Donald Trump; he could see it becoming a cult of obedience to a man whose corruption and incompetence was apparent to Gibbs.

鈥淚 couldn鈥檛 be part of it any longer,鈥 Gibbs said.

Today, the former GOP county chair is the chairman of the Shelby County Democratic Party, and has become one of the leading voices in the political life of the country for rural America.

Last week, he was one of thousands of rural voters from across the country to join a nationwide Zoom call of farm folks for the Harris/Walz campaign.

Gibbs鈥 conversion to Democratic party chair didn鈥檛 suddenly flip Shelby County from red to blue 鈥 far from it. But his example has strengthened the Democratic vote in the county.

鈥淲e鈥檝e been working to get rural Democrats out of hiding,鈥欌 Gibbs said. 鈥淭hey are starting to realize that we share their values. Until a voter believes that you share the core values with them, they are not going to listen to you on policy.鈥

That, Gibbs said, is the 鈥済enius Kamala Harris showed in picking Tim Walz.鈥

Walz grew up on a farm in a remote part of western Nebraska; he was raised on the hard work of farming. As a young man, he joined the National Guard, serving for 24 years. His military service meant that he could go to a small teachers鈥 college on the GI Bill.

鈥淗e鈥檚 a real person 鈥 a hunter, a teacher, a father, a football coach, and governor of one of the most agriculture-oriented states in the nation,鈥 Gibbs said. 鈥淪omeone that rural people can look at and see themselves in.鈥

And, Gibbs said, he campaigns with a joyful attitude.

鈥淗e can smile; he can laugh,鈥欌 Gibbs said. 鈥淪o can Kamala. That alone sets them apart from the other guys.鈥

Ohio鈥檚 rural voters, Gibbs said, are going to respond well to Walz.

鈥淭hey鈥檙e going to look at Tim Walz and say, 鈥楬e sounds like me; maybe he鈥檚 OK,鈥 鈥 Gibbs said.

Neither Gibbs nor anyone else who knows anything about Ohio politics believes that suddenly the dozens of small rural counties who have enabled Donald Trump to win Ohio in the past two presidential elections will flip.

But elections are won in the margins.

Trump won Shelby County in 2020 with a whopping 81% of the vote. In nearly all the rural counties Trump鈥檚 vote was north of 70%.

What if that margin could be trimmed back to 60%, or even 55%? With dozens of farmland counties in Ohio, that could result in a whole lot of votes for the Harris/Walz ticket.

In politics, all things are possible.

Howard Wilkinson is in his 50th year of covering politics on the local, state and national levels.